The 12-2 Minnesota Vikings have been one of the most pleasant surprises in all of the NFL this season. And in a few months, no one should be surprised to see quarterback Sam Darnold get a contract.
Depending on how this season ends and free agency progresses, Darnold could command the largest free-agent quarterback contract in the league this March. And while the Vikings are focused on the 2024 season, there is leaguewide belief that Minnesota hopes it can retain Darnold for the future.
The Vikings drafted quarterback JJ McCarthy 10th overall in April’s draft with the intention of making him the future of the franchise. Sources say that remains the case, even after McCarthy had preseason meniscus surgery that ruled him out for the entire 2024 season.
But Darnold’s play cannot be ignored within the organization. Ex no. The 3rd overall selection on a one-year contract puts the Vikings in the mix for the top overall seed in the NFC playoffs and a first-round bye.
“This could lead to a Jordan Love situation,” an AFC executive said this week.
Certainly, the Vikings have reiterated publicly that their efforts are continuing this season. It was echoed again when Minnesota added Daniel Jones to its practice squad last month. Minnesota only has one quarterback in McCarthy under contract through 2025, and Jones’ signing was not a sign of concern over Darnold’s return or McCarthy’s recovery.
Darnold is completing over 67% of his passes while throwing 29 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. He has made four game-winning drives this season, as he leads the eighth-best scoring offense in the league with head coach and play-caller Kevin O’Connell. His 104.9 passer rating is fourth-best in the league this year – the best so far in his seven-year career – and he is one win away from equaling the 13 wins he earned in all three seasons with the Jets.
2024 NFL playoff picture, standings: Packers make playoffs, Cowboys knock Buccaneers out of first placeDarnold came to Minnesota after a year as Brock Purdy’s backup in San Francisco, brought in as insurance for the 49ers if Purdy’s elbow did not fully heal from offseason surgery. Darnold saw hardly any game action, and in March he signed a one-year, $10 million contract with the Vikings to potentially become their starter after Kirk Cousins left in free agency.
The Vikings drafted McCarthy but listed Darnold as the QB1 to begin the preseason. Before the competition actually ended, McCarthy underwent season-ending surgery and Darnold won the job by default. Now he can earn it till 2025 on the basis of merit.
“I’m really stuck in the moment. I think this is the best way to approach it, to stay where my feet are,” Darnold recently told ESPN.
According to multiple league sources, the 27-year-old Darnold could earn a contract that would pay him more than $25 million per year. How he finishes this year will help determine that number, which could be out of Minnesota’s price range.
The Vikings are projected to have more than $70 million in cap space next year, and they could always earn more or negotiate a deal with Darnold to fit him comfortably next season and beyond .
Cam Ward and Shadure Sanders are the only quarterbacks in this upcoming draft class considered potential Week 1 starters. There’s also a weak free-agent class, especially if Russell Wilson opts to sign back with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
A source said that if Darnold leaves Minnesota, he will be selective about his next stop, in hopes that he will avoid a worse-case scenario than if he were drafted with the Jets or traded to Carolina. .
Which coaches are hired where this cycle could also have an impact on Darnold. If a team in need of a quarterback has a head coach whose system would be a good fit for Darnold, it could become an option that, at least currently, does not have one.
And if the Vikings keep Darnold, the organization will have to work closely with McCarthy. There was never a guarantee that McCarthy would be the Week 1 starter in 2024, and his injury and Darnold’s play could be a reasonable explanation for why the Vikings will continue to roll with the veteran as McCarthy sits. But it’s a situation the team will need to massage in the offseason.
There is also a realistic scenario where Darnold leaves in free agency and the Vikings sign Jones. He has been on the practice squad for the past few weeks, opting to stay in Minnesota as more than one team has inquired about his availability recently.
But many of those questions can and will be answered over the final three games of the regular season and the postseason. Until then, the Vikings were focused on the present.
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