Anthony Joshua will go into his heavyweight title fight against Daniel Dubois as the favorite among fans and bookmakers.
But their potential end may be hidden in the numbers.
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AJ has only lost three times so far, starting with a loss to Andy Ruiz Jr in 2019, which he avenged six months later.
But after losing to Oleksandr Usyk in 2021, he failed to win the unified title in a rematch a year later.
All three losses followed a similar pattern, with Joshua’s defeat beginning around the fourth round.
According to data provided by Compubox, Joshua lands an average of 11 more punches in the fourth round when he wins – but only six when he loses.
His punch accuracy also declines after the third round whenever he loses, but in wins it never drops below 30 percent from the second to the 11th rounds.
AJ was outscored by Ruiz 31-23 from the fourth round to the seventh round – when he was chased down and stopped Four Knockdown.
But things started to look good after three rounds, with Ruiz himself falling and the punches evened at 25-24.
After his first loss to Usyk, Joshua’s punch accuracy through 12 rounds was 19.2 per cent, compared to the Ukrainian’s 28 per cent.
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Anthony Joshua vs Daniel Dubois: Here’s everything you need to know ahead of the huge world title fight at Wembley
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Dubois also lost to Usyk, losing in the ninth round, while three years ago he lost to Joe Joyce in the 10th round.
He has defended his IBF belt for the first time, but despite being the champion he is considered the underdog.
But, if statistics are to be believed, this contest could be decided in less than half the time of a British contest.
Dubois, 27, comes into the bout off the back of two big wins over Jarrell Miller and Filip Hrgovic.
Joshua, 34, meanwhile, is on a four-win streak since failing to win the title from Usyk, 37, in August 2022.
There has been much talk about AJ’s new look – which is reminiscent of his most brutal era – as Joshua insists he has never been better.
He said: “I feel better now. I definitely feel better. More experienced, more tough. There’s been a lot of growth.”
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“I’m not so dependent on one or two things in the ring. I have a lot of tricks up my sleeve.”
“It’s been 12 rounds. My punching power has improved. Defense has improved, yes I am feeling good, better than ever.”
